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In recent years, pandemics have been mostly due to viruses with genomes made from RNA. Todate, thousands of RNA species have been identified, but only 239 infect humans. Their type and severity will depend upon its ability to spread among humans. In most cases, an infected person is highly unlikely to pass on the infection i. e. Zoonotic viruses e.g. Rabies. On the other occasions, viruses may evolve quickly, acquire the ability to spread among humans e.g. Bird flu, but there is no documented example of an RNA virus doing that.
The bigger threat comes from viruses that already possess the ability to spread from person to person as did some Sars- CoV-2 variants, which crossed over from animals already capable of spreading among humans e.g. measles, mumps and rubella associated with cold and gastrointestinal infections.
Other viruses capable of spreading among humans caused limited outbreaks because their R number ( how many people one infected person can infect ) is too low die on their own accord. But, R numbers can change as happened with Zaire ebola virus in West Africa ( 2014 ) .
There have been outbreak viruses, but they are powerful predictors of public health emergencies e.g. insect- borne Chikungunya, Zika, Oropouche viruses and the recent mpox ( a DNA virus ) caused major epidemics.
Data can also help predict a future pandemic virus e.g. COVID, because highly transmissible viruses tend to be closely related to other viruses that spread between humans, though these emerge separately from animals e.g. Sara-CoV-2, similar to the original Sars-corona virus, was independently ( and perhaps indirectly ) acquired from bats.
By contrast, Andes nor Bundibugyo virus were incapable of starting a global pandemic though both had been spreading for weeks before they were picked up.
Most viruses attract little attention. The discovery of HIV-1 in 1983 and Sars- CoV-2 in 2020 prepared the Aids and COVID pandemics respectively.
In conclusion, finding and understanding new viruses faster would deny the next pandemic the same headstart making a huge difference to the eventual toll on lives and livelihood
Dr. Raj Shekhar Pande
Past Vice President, Honorary Secretary, CWC Member, Convenor/ Chairman, IMA AMS
IMA MP State Branch
Past President, IMA Jabalpur Branch.