India and 3rd Wave

Vaccination statistics of India
India has been vaccinating average more than 50 lakh people every day.
◆Best performancec of 88.13 lakh vaccinated in one day on 16 August 21 .
◆Despite Vaccinating nearly equivalent population of Israel every day India has been able to give one shot to 33% people and both shots to 9.4% of population

🔰 Many people now feel that there will be no third wave. Before reaching any conclusion let’s look at the data again.
🌹◆Second wave struk India hard in April May 21. Prior to that Serosurveys at national level showed ~27% seropositivity while Delhi had showed a seropositivity of 56% in Jan 21. That time scientist believed that 60% Seropositivity touches level of Herd immunity required to contain pandemic.
🌹◆But Delta variant infected large population and inflicted heavy casualties. Now R0 (R naught) of Virus has been recalculated to be 4 and hence a level of 80% seropositivity is required to keep the pandemic at bay.
🌹◆Latest National serosurvey in June July 21 showed a sero-prevalance of ~67.6% which appears soothing but its shortcomings need to be realised.
🌹◆ Need to understand that
-Surveys results are calculated projection of small sample to a huge population. Here too sample of about 28975 population has been extrapolated over 140 Crore people I.e. magnification of nearly 50000 times.
🌹-Survey was done in 80 districts across 21 states. While India has 718 District in 28 states and 8 Union territoies
-Survey results showed great heterogeneity across various states.
🌹-10 states across India including Kerala, Haryana Rajasthan, North East States etc still have high R0 and hence entail risk of ferocious 3rd Wave.
🔰 Also we shouldn’t ignore fine print of Survey Report which stated–
🌹◆Though two third of the general population had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies A third of population did not have antibodies (Still ~ 40 crores vulnerable)
🌹◆State heterogeneity indicates possibility of future waves of infection
🌹◆States/districts/areas without antibodies run the risk of infection waves

🔰 Other indicators of impending 3rd wave
🌹◆We detailed the third wave data of USA and Israel in updates 253 and 254 . Both these nations faced a heavy 3rd wave by Delta variant despite fully vaccinating large population (more tha 78% in Israel and more than 50% in USA). So to believe that India will not have third might be like living in fools paradise.
🌹◆It is to be further undestood that US Population too could have had high seroprevalace (no official figures) because of highest number of covid cases in World and poor followings of lockdown & masks in democratic US. So for India too it may not be good to rely upon just sero survey and remain complacent.

🔰 Advantage India -Third Wave
India could remain at an advantage during third wave because it can be expected that 🌹 large population must have already developed good immunity against Delta variant during second wave. Such a situation is expected to render third wave shorter and smaller.
However, it could also be a false sense of security as threat of new emerging variants remains.

🔰 What are the Chances of Newer Variant Emerging?
New variants are said to develop because of replication pressure in immunocompromised host supplemented by use of convalescent plasma. Such Chances seem to become lesser than earlier because
🌹◆of mitigation of large number of patients with comorbidities and poor immunity.
🌹◆ Ban on use of convalescent plasma in treatment of Covid 19, which was being said to contribute to the development of newer variants.
🌹◆ No news of a fresh variant of concern from any where in world could be soothing.

🔰 When 3rd wave might Strike?
Some Experts say that 3rd wave has already started , rising slowly and it may peak in October 21. Peak case load could be 1.5 lakh per day but unlikely to be less than 1 lakh cases per day.

Panel of experts under Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), has predicted a third wave of Covid-19 hitting the country anytime between September and October.

Reasons and logics have been turned down by virus in last 20 months, so better to be wise and prepared rather be baffled at the end. So
◆No room for complacency (maintain CAB & community engagement)
◆Societal, public, religious & political congregations be avoided
◆Non-essential travels be discouraged. Travel only, if fully vaccinated

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