*Latest from CDC, USA*

*[07/06, 12:10]:*

*The US government’s Centre for Disease Control has made official the emerging scientific evidence on Coronavirus transmission:*

Very low risk of transmission from surfaces.

Very low risk from outdoor activities. Very high risk from gatherings in enclosed spaces like offices, religious places, cinema halls or theatres. These findings that have been emerging for a while need to be applied by people to manage the situation in the best manner possible. Time to reduce panic about surface transmission, and time to not be too eager to go back to office.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/21/virus-does-not-spread-easily-contaminated-surfaces-or-animals-revised-cdc-website-states/

[07/06, 12:10]

*Who is expected to catch corona…. an interesting analysis*

*WHAT IT TAKES TO INFECT*

To successfully infect you, the virus needs a dose of: ~1000 viral particles (vp)

The typical environmental spread of activities:

Breath: ~20 vp/minute

Speaking: ~200 vp/minute

Cough: ~200 million vp (enough of these may remain in air for hours in a poorly ventilated environment)

Sneeze: ~200 million vp

FORMULA

Successful infection = Exposure to Virus * Time

SCENARIOS

* Being in vicinity of someone (with 6 ft distancing): Low risk if limit to less than 45 minutes

* Talking to someone face to face (with mask): Low risk if limit to less than 4 minutes

* Someone passing you walking/jogging/cycling: Low risk

* Well-ventilated spaces, with distancing: Low risk (limit duration)

* Grocery shopping: Medium risk (can reduce to low by limiting time and following hygiene)

* Indoor spaces: High risk

* Public Bathrooms/Common areas: High fomite/surface transfer risk

* Restaurants: High risk (can reduce to Medium risk by sitting outdoors with distancing and surface touch awareness)

* Workplaces/Schools (even with social distancing): Very high risk, including high fomite transfer risk

* Parties/Weddings: Very high risk

* Business networking/conferences: Very high risk

* Arenas/Concerts/Cinemas: Very high risk

*RISK FACTORS*

The bottom line factors you can use to calculate your risk are:

– indoors vs outdoors

– narrow spaces vs large, ventilated spaces

– high people density vs low density

– longer exposure vs brief exposure

The risks will be higher for former scenarios.

4 comments

  1. Where is the source for this information? could you reffer to the CDC page where it was taken from? Thanks

    Like

    1. Dr. Erin Bromage, a comparative immunologist and professor of biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, summed it up with a short and sweet equation: “Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time.”
      Newsletter sign-up: Get The COVID-19 Brief sent to your inbox
      Bromage’s simplified formula was part of a recent blog post explaining ways to lower your risk of catching Covid-19 that has been read over 15 million times in the past two weeks, he told CNN.
      The main idea is that people get infected when they are exposed to a certain amount of viral particles. That viral threshold can be reached by an infected person’s sneeze or cough, which releases a large number of viral particles into the air. But an infected person talking or even just breathing still releases some virus into the air, and over a long period of time in an enclosed space, that could still infect others.

      Like

  2. Mahmoud Mohamed Mahmoud Abouatia · · Reply

    Important note
    Successful infection = Exposure to Virus * Time

    Like

    1. Dr. Erin Bromage, a comparative immunologist and professor of biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, summed it up with a short and sweet equation: “Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time.”
      Newsletter sign-up: Get The COVID-19 Brief sent to your inbox
      Bromage’s simplified formula was part of a recent blog post explaining ways to lower your risk of catching Covid-19 that has been read over 15 million times in the past two weeks, he told CNN.
      The main idea is that people get infected when they are exposed to a certain amount of viral particles. That viral threshold can be reached by an infected person’s sneeze or cough, which releases a large number of viral particles into the air. But an infected person talking or even just breathing still releases some virus into the air, and over a long period of time in an enclosed space, that could still infect others.

      Like

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